{"id":9317,"date":"2026-09-04T10:24:12","date_gmt":"2026-09-04T14:24:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/martinique2050.com\/?p=9317"},"modified":"2026-09-04T11:23:52","modified_gmt":"2026-09-04T15:23:52","slug":"el-nino-la-planete-entre-en-zone-dangereuse-jusquen-2027","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/martinique2050.com\/en\/el-nino-la-planete-entre-en-zone-dangereuse-jusquen-2027\/","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o: The Planet Enters a \u00abDanger Zone\u00bb Through 2027"},"content":{"rendered":"

It won\u2019t subside until 2027. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has never been more certain: El Ni\u00f1o is expected to become \u00abvery intense\u00bb by the end of the year. Record heat, droughts, floods\u2014the entire world is affected. The Caribbean, too.<\/h4>\n

100 %. The WMO has never been so certain<\/h2>\n

El Ni\u00f1o is here. The question is no longer whether it will last, but how high it will rise.<\/p>\n

According to the latest forecasts from the WMO, the United Nations weather agency, the probability that the phenomenon will persist through February 2027 is close to 100 %. This is a first. Neither for El Ni\u00f1o nor for La Ni\u00f1a\u2014its cold counterpart\u2014had the organization ever issued a forecast with such a high level of certainty.<\/p>\n

The peak is expected toward the end of the year. The effects, however, will continue into 2027.<\/p>\n

\n

\u00abThe planet is sailing into uncharted waters, and those waters are getting warmer.\u00bb Ant\u00f3nio Guterres, UN Secretary-General<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

+8 \u00b0C below the surface of the Pacific<\/h2>\n

El Ni\u00f1o is a natural phenomenon. It occurs every two to seven years: the waters of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific warm up, atmospheric circulation is disrupted, and both temperatures and precipitation are affected as a result across the entire planet.<\/p>\n

What's different this time is the context. The episode takes place on a planet that has already been warmed by greenhouse gases, with exceptionally warm oceans.<\/p>\n

The figures speak for themselves. The Ni\u00f1o 3.4 index, the benchmark for tracking the phenomenon, stood at +1.5 \u00b0C from May through July, then at +2 \u00b0C in July. Between late July and mid-August, weekly readings fluctuated between +2.2 \u00b0C and +2.6 \u00b0C above normal.<\/p>\n

Even more striking: beneath the surface, in certain areas of the tropical Pacific, water temperatures have exceeded normal levels by more than 8 \u00b0C. This heat accumulated at depth supports forecasts of increased intensity.<\/p>\n

Key Figures<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  • ~100 %: probability that El Ni\u00f1o will last until February 2027\n
      \n
    • 2.2 to +2.6 \u00b0C: Weekly anomaly of the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 index (late July\u2013mid-August)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
      • 8 \u00b0C: anomaly detected below the surface in certain areas of the tropical Pacific<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n
      • Ages 2 to 7: typical frequency of the phenomenon<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        \u00abLittle Boy,\u00bb Big Damage<\/h2>\n

        A very intense El Ni\u00f1o does not necessarily mean disasters everywhere or of the same magnitude. Its effects vary by region and season and interact with other oceanic and atmospheric phenomena.<\/p>\n

        But for September through November, the WMO models are clear: above-normal temperatures across nearly all land areas. In terms of rainfall, the El Ni\u00f1o pattern is expected to intensify, bringing heavier precipitation to some regions and more drought to others.<\/p>\n

        Two factors could still change the picture: a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole, which could amplify or mitigate certain effects, and a tropical Atlantic that is expected to remain warmer than normal.<\/p>\n

        \n

        \u00abEl Ni\u00f1o means \u201clittle boy\u201d in Spanish, but it has the potential to deal a massive blow to communities and economies around the world.\u00bb Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the WMO<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

        What about Martinique?<\/h2>\n

        The WMO press release does not specifically mention the Caribbean. However, two points directly concern the Caribbean region.<\/p>\n

        First, the warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic, as noted by the WMO: this is the basin that feeds our hurricanes and determines our temperatures.<\/p>\n

        Next, the major trends typically seen during El Ni\u00f1o years in the region: a generally less active Atlantic hurricane season and an increased risk of dry spells in the Caribbean. These are trends, not certainties: each event is different, and the WMO emphasizes that the effects are \u00abhighly variable\u00bb depending on the region.<\/p>\n

        On an island that imports most of its food and depends on its water resources, these signs warrant close monitoring.<\/p>\n

        \u00abExceptional preparation\u00bb<\/h2>\n

        Faced with a situation that is expected to persist, the WMO states that it has launched an unprecedented mobilization effort with national meteorological and hydrological services. The goal is to strengthen forecasting and early warning systems so that governments and humanitarian organizations can anticipate the impacts on agriculture, health, energy, and water.<\/p>\n

        \u00abThis exceptional El Ni\u00f1o calls for exceptional preparation and response,\u00bb insists Celeste Saulo. By late July, the WMO had already warned that the event would intensify. A month later, its forecasts had become both more serious and more certain.<\/p>\n

        Key Takeaways<\/strong><\/p>\n

          \n
        • El Ni\u00f1o is expected to last until February 2027, peaking in late 2026<\/li>\n
        • The WMO has never issued a forecast with such a high degree of certainty<\/li>\n
        • Above-normal temperatures are expected almost everywhere from September through November<\/li>\n
        • The effects vary greatly by region<\/li>\n
        • \u00abUnprecedented\u00bb mobilization of weather services for early warning<\/li>\n<\/ul>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

          Il ne faiblira pas avant 2027. L’Organisation m\u00e9t\u00e9orologique mondiale (OMM) n’a jamais \u00e9t\u00e9 aussi affirmative : El Ni\u00f1o devrait devenir \u00ab tr\u00e8s intense \u00bb d’ici la fin de l’ann\u00e9e. Chaleur record, s\u00e9cheresses, inondations : le monde entier est concern\u00e9. La Cara\u00efbe aussi. 100 %. Jamais l’OMM n’avait \u00e9t\u00e9 aussi s\u00fbre El Ni\u00f1o est l\u00e0. La …<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":9318,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-title":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-description":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-title":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-description":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1187,1165,1723],"tags":[1282,1462,1320,1191,1373,1200,1244,1268,1445,1169],"class_list":["post-9317","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites","category-energie","category-risques-naturels","tag-caraibe","tag-developpement-durable","tag-ecologie","tag-energie","tag-environnement","tag-evenement","tag-martinique","tag-nature","tag-rechauffement-climatique","tag-transition-energetique"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nEl Ni\u00f1o : la plan\u00e8te entre en \u00ab zone dangereuse \u00bb jusqu'en 2027 - martinique2050<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Il ne faiblira pas avant 2027. L'Organisation m\u00e9t\u00e9orologique mondiale (OMM) n'a jamais \u00e9t\u00e9 aussi affirmative : El Ni\u00f1o devrait devenir \u00ab tr\u00e8s intense \u00bb\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/martinique2050.com\/en\/el-nino-la-planete-entre-en-zone-dangereuse-jusquen-2027\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"El Ni\u00f1o : la plan\u00e8te entre en \u00ab zone dangereuse \u00bb jusqu'en 2027 - martinique2050\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Il ne faiblira pas avant 2027. 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