According to a study published by the journal Science Advances, on April 27, the probability of intense tropical cyclones—Category 3 or higher—is projected to more than double by 2050 in all regions of the world, with the exception of the Bay of Bengal and the Gulf of Mexico. The analysis also predicts that the maximum wind speeds associated with these cyclones could increase to about 20 %, while weaker tropical cyclones and tropical storms will become less frequent.
« To better protect coastal communities from the future impacts of tropical cyclones, it is essential to improve our understanding of future changes in the hazards and risks posed by these cyclones at the local level », note the co-authors, an international group of scientists led by researcher Nadia Bloemendaal of the Institute for Environmental Sciences in Amsterdam (Netherlands). However, accurate global historical records are rare and cover only the last 30 to 100 years. This lack of data makes it difficult to model tropical cyclones and complicates risk assessment at the local level.
Using computer-simulated cyclones based on synthetic modeling, researchers were able to more accurately predict the occurrence and behavior of tropical cyclones over the coming decades in light of climate change. The results were obtained on a global scale and with a fine spatial resolution of just 10 kilometers, enabling local forecasts.
The regions most at risk are located in low-income countries. Countries where tropical cyclones are relatively rare today will face an increased risk in the coming years, including Cambodia, Laos, Mozambique, and many Pacific island nations, such as the Solomon Islands and Tonga. Asia will be the continent most at risk from tropical cyclones, with millions more people affected in China, Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam.
Source: Agnès Sinaï | Actu-Environnement.com
